Making inference with messy (citizen science) data: when are data accurate enough and how can they be improved?

Measurement or observation error is common in ecological data: as citizen scientists and automated algorithms play larger roles processing growing volumes of data to address problems at large scales, concerns about data quality and strategies for improving it have received greater focus. However, practical guidance pertaining to fundamental data quality questions for data users or managers-how accurate do data need to be and what is the best or most efficient way to improve it?-remains limited. We present a generalizable framework for evaluating data quality and identifying remediation practices, and demonstrate the framework using trail camera images classified using crowdsourcing to determine acceptable rates of misclassification and identify optimal remediation strategies for analysis using occupancy models. We used expert validation to estimate baseline classification accuracy and simulation to determine the sensitivity of two occupancy estimators (standard and false-positive extensions) to different empirical misclassification rates. We used regression techniques to identify important predictors of misclassification and prioritize remediation strategies. More than 93% of images were accurately classified, but simulation results suggested that most species were not identified accurately enough to permit distribution estimation at our predefined threshold for accuracy (<5% absolute bias). A model developed to screen incorrect classifications predicted misclassified images with >97% accuracy: enough to meet our accuracy threshold. Occupancy models that accounted for false-positive error provided even more accurate inference even at high rates of misclassification (30%). As simulation suggested occupancy models were less sensitive to additional false-negative error, screening models or fitting occupancy models accounting for false-positive error emerged as efficient data remediation solutions. Combining simulation-based sensitivity analysis with empirical estimation of baseline error and its variability allows users and managers of potentially error-prone data to identify and fix problematic data more efficiently. It may be particularly helpful for "big data" efforts dependent upon citizen scientists or automated classification algorithms with many downstream users, but given the ubiquity of observation or measurement error, even conventional studies may benefit from focusing more attention upon data quality.

Frac Sand Mines Are Preferentially Sited in Unzoned Rural Areas.

Shifting markets can cause unexpected, stochastic changes in rural landscapes that may take local communities by surprise. Preferential siting of new industrial facilities in poor areas or in areas with few regulatory restrictions can have implications for environmental sustainability, human health, and social justice. This study focuses on frac sand mining-the mining of high-quality silica sand used in hydraulic fracturing processes for gas and oil extraction. Frac sand mining gained prominence in the 2000s in the upper midwestern United States where nonmetallic mining is regulated primarily by local zoning. I asked whether frac sand mines were more commonly sited in rural townships without formal zoning regulations or planning processes than in those that undertook zoning and planning before the frac sand boom. I also asked if mine prevalence was correlated with socioeconomic differences across townships. After creating a probability surface to map areas most suitable for frac sand mine occurrence, I developed neutral landscape models from which to compare actual mine distributions in zoned and unzoned areas at three different spatial extents. Mines were significantly clustered in unzoned jurisdictions at the statewide level and in 7 of the 8 counties with at least three frac sand mines and some unzoned land. Subsequent regression analyses showed mine prevalence to be uncorrelated with land value, tax rate, or per capita income, but correlated with remoteness and zoning. The predicted mine count in unzoned townships was over two times higher than that in zoned townships. However, the county with the most mines by far was under a county zoning ordinance, perhaps indicating industry preferences for locations with clear, homogenous rules over patchwork regulation. Rural communities can use the case of frac sand mining as motivation to discuss and plan for sudden land-use predicaments, rather than wait to grapple with unfamiliar legal processes during a period of intense conflict.

Controlled exosome release from the retinal pigment epithelium in situ.

Retinal Pigment Epithelial cells (RPE) express both GPR143 and myocilin, which interact in a signal transduction-dependent manner. In heterologous systems, activation of GPR143 with ligand causes transient recruitment of myocilin to internalized receptors, which appears to be the entry point of myocilin to the endocytic pathway. In some but not all cells, myocilin also traffics through the multivesicular body (MVB) and is released on the surface of exosomes in a signal transduction-dependent fashion. Little is known regarding the role of exosomes in RPE, but they likely serve as a mode of communication between the RPE and the outer retina. In this study, we used posterior poles with retina removed from fresh human donor eyes as a model to test the relationship between GPR143, myocilin, and exosomes in an endogenous system. We isolated exosomes released by RPE using differential centrifugation of media conditioned by the RPE for 25 min, and then characterized the exosomes using nanoparticle tracking to determine the number and size of the exosomes. Next, we tested whether ligand stimulation of GPR143 using l-DOPA altered RPE exosome release. Finally, we investigated whether myocilin was present on the exosomes released by RPE and whether l-DOPA stimulation of GPR143 caused recruitment of myocilin to the endocytic pathway, as we have previously observed using cultured cells. Activation of GPR143 halted RPE exosome release, while simultaneously recruiting myocilin to the endocytic compartment. Together, our results indicate that GPR143 and myocilin function in a signal transduction system that can control exosome release from RPE.

Land management restrictions and options for change in perpetual conservation easements.

Conservation organizations rely on conservation easements for diverse purposes, including protection of species and natural communities, working forests, and open space. This research investigated how perpetual conservation easements incorporated property rights, responsibilities, and options for change over time in land management. We compared 34 conservation easements held by one federal, three state, and four nonprofit organizations in Wisconsin. They incorporated six mechanisms for ongoing land management decision-making: management plans (74 %), modifications to permitted landowner uses with discretionary consent (65 %), amendment clauses (53 %), easement holder rights to conduct land management (50 %), reference to laws or policies as compliance terms (47 %), and conditional use permits (12 %). Easements with purposes to protect species and natural communities had more ecological monitoring rights, organizational control over land management, and mechanisms for change than easements with general open space purposes. Forestry purposes were associated with mechanisms for change but not necessarily with ecological monitoring rights or organizational control over land management. The Natural Resources Conservation Service-Wetland Reserve Program had a particularly consistent approach with high control over land use and some discretion to modify uses through permits. Conservation staff perceived a need to respond to changing social and ecological conditions but were divided on whether climate change was likely to negatively impact their conservation easements. Many conservation easements involved significant constraints on easement holders' options for altering land management to achieve conservation purposes over time. This study suggests the need for greater attention to easement drafting, monitoring, and ongoing decision processes to ensure the public benefits of land conservation in changing landscapes.